Climate risk and scenario analysis
What is climate risk and scenario analysis?
Climate change is already affecting assets, supply chains and investment portfolios. Our climate risk and scenario analysis service helps organisations identify where they are exposed, understand the materiality of those risks and integrate climate considerations into strategy, operations and governance.
We focus on ensuring risk insights are practical and decision-led, supporting boards and executive teams in understanding both exposure and opportunity under evolving climate pathways. Experience across regulatory disclosure, enterprise risk and transition planning allows us to connect scenario modelling with practical governance implications, ensuring outputs are proportionate, defensible and commercially relevant.
What the service covers.
Climate risk and scenario analysis help organisations understand and manage the financial and operational implications of climate change across their value chains. We assess both physical and transition risks under multiple climate scenarios and time horizons, providing a clear view of potential impacts on assets, operations, and supply chains.
We support to identify, prioritise, and quantify climate-related risks and opportunities, and to integrate these into corporate risk registers, governance structures, and strategic planning processes. This ensures climate risk is treated alongside other principal business risks and embedded into enterprise risk management and decision-making.
Our approach is aligned with leading frameworks and regulatory expectations, including TCFD, ISSB, CSRD, and UK governance requirements (UK CFD). We focus on delivering decision-useful outputs that strengthen resilience, support disclosure, and enable more informed, forward-looking business strategy.
Value and benefits.
A structured climate risk assessment provides clarity on which risks are most material to the business model and where action is required. Organisations gain improved visibility of exposure to physical events, regulatory change and market shifts.
By embedding climate risk into governance, investment appraisal and operational planning, organisations move from reactive disclosure to proactive resilience. This supports better decision-making, reduces the likelihood of stranded assets and strengthens long-term performance.
Frequently asked questions.
Do we need to carry out a climate risk assessment?
Many organisations are now expected to assess and disclose climate-related risks under frameworks such as TCFD, ISSB, and CSRD. Even where not mandatory, understanding climate risk is increasingly important for investors, lenders, and internal risk management.
What does a climate risk and scenario analysis involve?
It involves identifying your exposure to climate-related risks across your operations and value chain, and assessing how these risks may evolve under different climate scenarios (e.g. low vs high warming pathways) over short-, medium-, and long-term time horizons.
What are climate scenarios and why are they used?
Climate scenarios are plausible future pathways based on different levels of global warming and policy action. They help organisations understand how risks and opportunities may change under different futures, supporting more robust and forward-looking decision-making.
Can you quantify the financial impact of climate risks?
Where data allows, we can support the quantification of potential financial impacts. In other cases, we provide qualitative or semi-quantitative assessments to support prioritisation and decision-making.
Latest insights.
More services.
Impacts and dependencies
We help you understand how your business impacts the world around it. And what it depends on. So you can manage risks, uncover opportunities, and make smarter, more sustainable decisions.
Targets and strategy
We build focused, effective strategies that help you deliver on your sustainability commitments and targets.
Reporting
Demonstrating commitment, progress, and impact through transparent, ESG reporting and powerful communications to enhance business growth.
Communication
Sustainability can be a complex landscape, we work with your organisation to fully equip your employees and stakeholders with the necessary skills and knowledge so everyone can engage in your strategies.